RL154 — The Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, and Money Supply with Economist Bryce Gill
on the Retirement Lifestyle Show, Erik Olson and Adrian Nicholson sit down with Bryce Gill to try and make sense of the Federal Reserve Policy. They analyze the role of the Federal Reserve in slowing down inflation, the true source of inflation, and the growth of the M2 money supply.
[03:48] Getting to Know Bryce Gill
[05:33] Overview of First Trust's Market Outlook for 2023
[07:36] Bryce's Thoughts on How to Tackle Inflation
[11:46] The Impact of Consistent Upward Trends in Globalization
[14:16] Are Interest Rates the True Source of Inflation?
[18:06] The Growth of the M2 Money Supply
[22:40] The Reason Behind the Recent Increase In U.S. Money Supply
[27:23] What to Expect From a Gradual Decline in Money Supply
[31:30] Unemployment Rates and What the Fed Cares About Most
[34:30] The Role of Interest Rates in the Economy
[37:10] Why Interest Rates Don't Really Mean Anything Anymore
[42:27] Why the Price of Money in the Economy Matters
[47:00] How Velocity of Money Impacts Economic Growth and Inflation
[52:20] Recession 2023: Is a Soft Landing Still Possible?
[56:19] The Interaction Between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy
[01:03:10] The American Economy is Still Worth the Investment
[01:05:41] Parting Thoughts
For more links and the full show notes keep scrolling down!
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Full Show Notes:
Who is Bryce Gill?
Bryce Gill is an Economist and part of the First Trust Economics Team that Bloomberg has ranked as one of the top forecasters of the U.S. economy over the past several years. At First Trust, Bryce is responsible for analyzing economic indicators, writing economic commentaries, and producing articles on the First Trust Economics Blog. He is also one of First Trust's national speakers, traveling around the U.S. to present timely information on the economy and financial markets to both professional and everyday investors. Cogent's 2017 Survey of Advisors rated First Trust's thought leadership material as number one for most read and most shared by financial professionals with colleagues or clients. Bryce is based in First Trust's Austin, TX office and received an MBA from the University of Texas McCombs School of Business and a B.A. in Economics from Miami University (Ohio).
Soft Landing? - First Trust's Perspectives on the Recession
Will the U.S. have a soft landing? If so, what would have caused it? According to First Trust Advisors, a soft landing would be because the Federal Reserve tightened enough to slow inflation, but not enough to throw the economy into recession. As Bryce explains, when the Fed shifted to an "abundant reserve" monetary policy and held rates at zero, it somehow managed to keep the M2 money supply in check.
The Fed can only control two things, interest rates and the growth rate of the money supply. When you look at these two things, there is a massive divergence. The funds rate is still below inflation. And when you look at just rates, monetary policy is still not tight. This means that when the money supply brakes are slammed, economic growth should suffer before inflation comes down and a recession seems inevitable. First Trust's forecast for real GDP growth this year is -0.5%, with inflation remaining above 4%. In other words, a recession with higher inflation – stagflation, and it's not a soft landing.
Links and Resources:
Bryce Gill's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bryce-gill-10659a71/
First Trust's Monday Morning Outlook "Soft Landing?" from January 17, 2023: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2023/1/17/soft-landing
The Federal Reserve's M2 Money Supply graph: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
The Federal Reserve's GDP graph: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP
All opinions expressed by podcast hosts and guests are solely their own. While based on information that they believe is reliable, neither Arete Wealth nor its affiliates warrant its completeness or accuracy, nor do their opinions reflect the opinion of Arete Wealth. This podcast is for general informational purposes only, and should not be regarded as specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Before making any decisions, consult a professional.