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The 2023 Recession Debate

RL176–The 2023 Recession Debate


In this episode of the Retirement Lifestyle Show, Roshan Loungani and Adrian Nicholson tackle the 2023 recession debate. They look at arguments against and for a recession as well as what the job numbers, manufacturing, and credit can tell us about a possible rich-cession.


[00:00] Introduction

[01:15] Are We in a Recession Yet?

[03:09] What is an Inverted Yield Curve

[06:28] Rolling Recession Explained

[10:20] Sending and Credit Card Debt

[12:04] Arguments Against a Recession

[15:16] Talk of a Mild/No Recession at All

[17:00] How Labor Typically Responds to Recessions

[19:53] Rich-cession: A New Kind of Recession

[22:19] Arguments for an Upcoming Recession

[25:14] The Leading Economic Index

[28:31] How Recessions Impact Long-Term Investors[32:05] Parting Thoughts



For more links and the full show notes keep scrolling down!


Roshan Loungani can be reached at roshan.loungani@aretewealth.com or at 202-536-4468.


Erik Olson can be reached at erik.olson@aretewealth.com or 815-940-4652.


Adrian Nicholson can be reached at adrian.nicholson@aretewealth.com or at 703-915-8905.

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Full Show Notes:


The 2023 Recession Debate

The big question on everyone's mind is, are we in a recession yet? The past six months have been full of recession talk. And according to one widely used definition of recession—two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP)—the economy experienced a downturn in the first half of 2022. However, the American economy is still relatively strong, considering the prevailing circumstances. For example, the labor market is exceptionally robust, wages are increasing at a pace not seen in decades, and ample job opportunities are available.


If you're a long-term investor, the good news is that you're probably investing in assets that increase in value and will pay off in the long term. The not-so-good news is that you are bound to experience a recession at some point. All in all, Roshan believes long-term investors should not consider recessions a threat – but rather an opportunity.



All opinions expressed by podcast hosts and guests are solely their own. While based on information that they believe is reliable, neither Arete Wealth nor its affiliates warrant its completeness or accuracy, nor do their opinions reflect the opinion of Arete Wealth. This podcast is for general informational purposes only, and should not be regarded as specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Before making any decisions, consult a professional.

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