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Bullish or Bearish?

Updated: Jul 7

On the Retirement Lifestyle Show, Erik Olson and Adrian Nicholson decode whether the current market environment is bullish or bearish. They talk about structured notes, the yield curve, the prospect of an imminent recession, and how to invest depending on whether the markets move up, down, or sideways.


[03:32] Introduction

[07:15] Macroeconomic Factors and the Current Investing Environment

[09:50] Are We In a Recessionary Environment?

[15:15] The Yield Curve: A Recessionary Signal?

[17:00] The Relationship Between a Bond's Price and Yield to Maturity

[22:45] Market Declines and Future Projections

[26:38] Length of Market Recovery and Making Investment Decisions

[29:20] Policy Responses and Inflation Fighting Tools

[34:30] Growth Versus Value Stocks in the Current Market Environment

[42:20] Ideas About Allocations

[49:43] Opportunities in the Current Market Environment

[50:54] Structured Notes and How They Work

[55:50] Parting Thoughts


For more links and the full show notes keep scrolling down!


Roshan Loungani can be reached at roshan.loungani@aretewealth.com or at 202-536-4468.


Erik Olson can be reached at erik.olson@aretewealth.com or 815-940-4652.


Adrian Nicholson can be reached at adrian.nicholson@aretewealth.com or at 703-915-8905.


For links to your favorite platform like Spotify, iTunes and so on go here:

https://anchor.fm/roshan-a-loungani/episodes/RL123---Bullish-or-Bearish-e1kk0gi


Select episodes, like this one, can be found on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0ZZPM3xk6onXNpb1ceAkCg




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Podcast Website: https://www.retirementlifestyleshow.com https://www.retirewithroshan.com https://youtu.be/hKVzI87v0tA https://twitter.com/RoshanLoungani https://www.linkedin.com/in/roshanloungani/ https://www.facebook.com/retirewithroshan/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/financialerik/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/adrian-nicholson-74b82b13b/ #retirementlifestylepodcast #fire #podcast #FI #Retire #retirewithroshan


Full Show Notes:


Bullish or Bearish?

Since the turn of the year, almost every bit of financial news has been about inflation, rising interest rates, ongoing war, a bear market, or a possible recession. Thus, as an investor, you're probably worried about how all these factors might influence your investing decisions. All these events mean that emotions will undoubtedly come into the picture. And when your emotions are thrown into the fray, it's time to take a step back, inform your mind, and get some perspective.


As we approach the second half of 2022, what's your approach to investing? Is it time to be bearish or to run with the bulls? First, 2022 has been a really complicated year for many investors. Technology stocks took a hit, and inflation rates are through the roof. Despite all that, certain clear patterns based on macroeconomic factors and Fed policies could help investors adapt to changing market conditions. Whether you choose to be bearish or bullish, be prepared to do some fine-tuning in the months to come.


What Are Structured Notes and How Do They Work?

Structured notes are hybrid securities that combine the features of multiple financial products into one. They essentially combine bonds and other investments to create the features of both debt and investment assets. The bond component provides principal protection to investors and often makes up 80% of the investment. The derivative component fills up the remaining 20% and provides upside potential to investors.


Although structured notes create options that are otherwise unavailable for investors, there's reason to be wary of them. For example, structured notes contain a bond element that most people would consider safe. However, the inclusion of stocks and other derivatives makes them a bit more volatile. It's this hybrid nature that makes structured notes interesting and enticing investment opportunities.


Links and Resources:

1. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y2Y) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

2. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y3M) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

3. Yield Curve Valuation Model (currentmarketvaluation.com)


All opinions expressed by podcast hosts and guests are solely their own. While based on information that they believe is reliable, neither Arete Wealth nor its affiliates warrant its completeness or accuracy, nor do their opinions reflect the opinion of Arete Wealth. This podcast is for general informational purposes only, and should not be regarded as specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Before making any decisions, consult a professional.

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