RL151 — 2023 Economic Outlook
On the Retirement Lifestyle Show, Roshan Loungani, Eric Olson, and Adrian Nicholson discuss what investors can expect from the U.S. and global economies in 2023. They break down topics like the downside of a prolonged low-interest rate environment, how the 2022 market lows will shape 2023, and what the Fed will do to keep up with inflation.
[00:00] Introduction
[02:21] 2022 Year in Review and 2023 Market Outlook
[04:01] Forecasting 2023's Inflation Rate
[07:08] Will 2023 Be a Fed-Driven Market?
[08:48] 2022: A Tale of Two Halves
[11:30] Inflation and the Labor Market
[14:45] 2022 Was The Worst Performing Economy in 40 Years
[17:28] Gen Z and Millennials Have Never Seen a 'Normal' Recession Before
[19:30] Indexed Approach to Investing
[21:40] What to Expect From a High-Interest Rate Economy
[24:04] Why Investors Will Favor Value and Quality Investing in 2023
[24:48] How Duration Affects Stocks and Bonds
[27:33] Will the Federal Reserve Pivot in 2023?
[33:10] Why Zero Percent Interest Rates Forever is Not a Good Thing
[37:10] The Global Outlook For the Economy
[39:57] How China's Foreign and Domestic Policies are Impacting Global Supply Chain
[42:15] Russia's War with Ukraine: What to Expect in 2023
[45:35] Parting Thoughts
For more links and the full show notes keep scrolling down!
Roshan Loungani can be reached at roshan.loungani@aretewealth.com or at 202-536-4468.
Erik Olson can be reached at erik.olson@aretewealth.com or 815-940-4652.
Adrian Nicholson can be reached at adrian.nicholson@aretewealth.com or at 703-915-8905.
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Full Show Notes:
2023 Economic Outlook
If you're an active investor, chances are, you walked away from 2022 bruised and battered. Stocks, bonds, and even crypto were badly hit amid a turbulent year not seen in almost 40 years. So the big question is, will 2023 be the year investor's fortunes change? Or should we expect an even more miserable year?
Well, there are a couple of things that could shape markets in 2023. For example, China's reopening and the end to the Russia-Ukraine war might turn things around in 2023. Nonetheless, most experts agree that the global economy is not at imminent risk of sliding into recession. 2023 is likely the year we'll see weaker growth, less inflation, and an end to rate hikes. The fact that the U.S. narrowly missed a recession means you must stay smart in 2023 because, ultimately, no one knows how the markets will end in 2023.
Why Zero Percent Interest Rates Forever is Not a Good Thing
There are several reasons why zero percent interest rates forever is not a good thing.
First, very low interest rates discourage saving and encourage borrowing - which can lead to increased debt levels and financial instability. When interest rates are low, people and businesses may be more likely to take on debt. And when this happens, the outcome is an over-leveraged economy that is vulnerable to economic shocks.
Second, very low interest rates hurt savers, especially retirees who rely on interest from their savings to supplement their income. With zero percent interest rates, the returns on safe, low-risk investments like savings accounts may be insufficient to keep pace with inflation. This inevitably erodes people's purchasing power over time.
Finally, and maybe more importantly, zero percent interest rates may indicate that the economy is not functioning normally and that other unconventional monetary policy measures may be needed. This can create uncertainty and reduce confidence in the economy.
It's worth noting that the Fed generally uses low-interest rates as a tool to stimulate economic activity during times of economic downturn. However, keeping interest rates at very low levels for an extended period of time is often not desirable due to the financial consequences that could arise.
All opinions expressed by podcast hosts and guests are solely their own. While based on information that they believe is reliable, neither Arete Wealth nor its affiliates warrant its completeness or accuracy, nor do their opinions reflect the opinion of Arete Wealth. This podcast is for general informational purposes only, and should not be regarded as specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Before making any decisions, consult a professional.